Grand Strategy | A year after the Hamas strike, insecurity grows

A year ago, October 7 came as a distraction to the war in Ukraine. Today, Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attack has become so all-consuming that everything else is a distraction. With close to 45,000, mostly civilians, dead, no ceasefire in sight, and a rapidly escalating conflict, the possibility of a war engulfing West Asia, is alarmingly real.

A world without diplomacy: The Ukraine war, to some extent, and the ongoing war in West Asia, more prominently, highlight the fact that we are today in a world with no mediators capable of mediating or ending regional wars.
There are hardly any useful backchannels or willing negotiators who can reach out to Israel, Iran or the United States (US). While, theoretically speaking, the US may be in a position to end or extend the war in Ukraine, its helplessness when it comes to West Asia is shockingly stark. The world continues to look at Washington for a solution in the region, which it is unable to provide thanks to its own presidential elections and the influence Tel Aviv exerts on the American body politic. If US intervention in regional conflicts is often unwelcome and problematic, its indifference could be troubling, and its inability to act due to partisan considerations even worse.
The silence of the superpower-in-waiting, China, is curious, too. While it sided with Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war, it sat it out during the Red Sea crisis and has contributed little to defusing global crises elsewhere, and it has been disinterested in mediating in the West Asia crisis.
India doesn’t see itself as powerful enough to undertake such tasks, yet. A world without empowered institutions, crisis diplomacy, and trusted mediators able and willing to defuse serious crises will be akin to chaos on steroids.
A more insecure world: Given two simultaneous wars involving great powers in some capacity — with no meaningful conversations on global stability, the potential to fuel more grey-zone warfare and terrorism, and humanitarian concerns sidelined — a deeply insecure and unstable world is in sight. Add to this growing nuclear temptations that are bound to result from such systemic instability and uncertainty. While nothing may stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons now, more and more States with difficult neighbours, especially those with nuclear weapons, may consider taking this path.
Even though the post-Word War II institutions have perpetuated structural inequality on a global scale, a world without institutions and norms is undoubtedly worse.
Consider the United Nations (UN). The UN has not only become pathologically ineffective and helpless, with warring parties feeling little hesitation in bombing even areas where UN staff may be present, but it also faces the risk of being banned or declared non grata, as Israel recently did with the UN chief whose pleas to the warring parties are not taken seriously even by the media.
Take the case of the International Criminal Court (ICC). It is not only in Israel’s line of fire but also in that of the US and some of Israel’s close friends in Europe. Ironically, those very States that were keen to have the ICC issue arrest warrants against Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned of sanctioning the ICC for issuing the same against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Those who labelled the Ukraine war as Putin’s war refuse to acknowledge that Israel’s excesses are driven by Netanyahu’s quest for political survival.
The two wars, particularly the one being waged by Israel in Gaza, are also taking us toward a world where moral considerations are becoming obsolete, despite this approach’s inherent challenges, including the fact that political morality is rife with hypocrisy. And yet, moralpolitik provides us with a yardstick to measure the “banality of evil” in everyday State practice. In domestic politics or international relations, moral double standards are better than having no moral standards at all. We need a yardstick, however flawed in practice, for measurement. The most disturbing example of the banality of evil in this war is equating Hamas terrorists with the people of Gaza, and our tacit approval of such framing.
Israel is more isolated and insecure: One year since the October 7 terror attacks on Israel and its disproportionate retaliation, Israel’s perpetual sense of insecurity has only deepened alongside its now growing isolation.
Despite Israel’s ever-growing ability to hit back at its enemies with more and more force, what is also clear is its utter vulnerability in the region. What Israelis call the ring of fire — Iran and its proxy groups in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria — has only become more intense. Are Israeli citizens more secure today than they were a few years ago? No country, however powerful, would be able to defend itself from determined, ideologically motivated adversaries, especially when its own actions sustain the latter’s cause.
Not only is Israel more insecure today, but it is also losing the world’s sympathy. Israel is now routinely censured and criticised in various international forums for its excesses and violation of international law, in particular by those in the Global South. While the support of the Global South may not matter much to Israel, Israel’s European and North American supporters might find it hard to ignore them for geopolitical reasons, at the very least. While the US is still batting for Israel, there are growing divisions within the former on the Israeli question, especially among the younger generations.
The Abraham Accords is hanging by a thread, but it will come increasingly under stress as the war progresses, primarily driven by popular sentiments on the streets. As a result, the Gulf States, in particular, may be forced back into the Palestine trap even if they want to move beyond it.
What does all this mean for the state and people of Israel? Increasingly insecure, losing global sympathy, and being labelled as merciless villains, the war has not only overshadowed the popular protests against Netanyahu but also threatens to undermine Israel’s liberal and democratic values. Is this truly the future the people of Israel envision for themselves as a people? What Israelis do to the people of Gaza is bound to have a defining impact on themselves as a people.
For us in India, it was easy to ignore the war in Ukraine as Europe’s problem in which “White people were killing White people”. But a war in West Asia is fundamentally different — it could affect us directly, indirectly and in unforeseen ways.
Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research. The views expressed are personal